A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
