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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

However this year's field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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